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Rates Are Shifting—Here’s Why
April 08, 2026
What’s Happening With Mortgage Rates and the Economy Right Now
The past couple of weeks have been a reminder of how quickly global events can ripple into financial markets—and eventually into the mortgage rates Canadians see.
Recently, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher. When oil prices jump quickly, financial markets tend to react, and that reaction often shows up in the bond market first. Bond yields are important because they directly influence the cost for banks to fund fixed-rate mortgages.
In early March, bond yields rose noticeably in a short period of time. As a result, many lenders adjusted their pricing. Some of the lower fixed mortgage rates that had briefly appeared in the mid-to-high 3% range have largely disappeared, and a few lenders have begun increasing their posted rates.
For now, markets appear to be settling after the recent volatility. If conditions stabilize, we could see mortgage pricing level out over the coming weeks. However, global events and economic data will continue to influence the direction of rates.
What the Bank of Canada May Do Next
While markets have been reacting to global developments, attention is also turning toward the next decision from the Bank of Canada.
Recent employment data across Canada has been weaker than expected, which would normally support the case for lower interest rates. However, rising oil prices and potential increases in food costs could add pressure to inflation.
Because of this balancing act, many economists expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate steady in the near term while it monitors both inflation and global economic risks. Rather than making quick changes, the central bank is likely to take a “wait and see” approach as events unfold.
For borrowers, that means mortgage rates may remain somewhat sensitive to economic news over the coming months.
Mortgage Approval Timelines
On the operational side, lenders are currently processing mortgage files fairly quickly.
In many cases, approvals and document reviews are being completed within one to three business days, which is encouraging for buyers working through purchase conditions.
That said, timelines can vary depending on the lender and the complexity of the file. If a transaction requires a faster turnaround, it’s often still possible to find a lender that can accommodate a shorter timeline.
The key takeaway: structure financing conditions based on what’s needed for the deal, and work with lenders that can meet those timelines.
Why Alberta Continues to Stand Out Economically
While parts of the country are seeing slower economic growth, Alberta continues to show relatively strong momentum compared with other provinces.
Across Canada, recent employment numbers revealed some softness in the labour market. Nationally, the unemployment rate has moved up slightly, and overall job growth has slowed.
Alberta, however, has remained more resilient.
Alberta’s Key Economic Trends
- Employment levels have remained stable following strong gains earlier this year
- The unemployment rate sits slightly lower than the national average
- Year-over-year employment growth continues to lead the country
This strength is particularly noticeable in major urban centres like Calgary and Edmonton.
In Calgary, job growth has continued to trend upward since the beginning of the year. Even with rapid population growth, employment gains have helped keep the unemployment rate relatively contained.
Edmonton has also seen a significant recovery compared with the volatility experienced in 2025. Employment levels have increased steadily, and the labour market has regained much of the ground lost during last year’s slowdown.
Housing Affordability and Rental Trends
Another trend worth noting is what’s happening in the rental market.
Across Canada, rents have been declining for well over a year. While this is challenging news for landlords and investors, it can provide relief for renters and those saving for a future home purchase.
Lower rental pressure can make it easier for some households to build savings for a down payment, which could eventually support housing demand as affordability improves.
Final Thoughts
Economic conditions across Canada remain mixed, but Alberta continues to stand out as a region with strong population growth, employment gains, and long-term opportunity.
Mortgage rates will likely continue responding to global events, bond market movements, and upcoming decisions from the Bank of Canada. While short-term volatility can happen, stability in financial markets could lead to more predictable mortgage pricing in the months ahead.
For buyers, investors, and homeowners considering refinancing, staying informed about both local and global trends can make a meaningful difference when deciding the right time to act.
If you’re thinking about buying, refinancing, or simply want to understand your options, let’s connect and explore what makes the most sense for you.
Sukh Dhaliwal
Mortgage Associate
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